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Gas prices.....zounds!!!!

Started by Mugwump, January 02, 2015, 03:06:05 PM

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EdKaz

 Kind of interesting to watch as this all starts to play out........

The Talking heads place blame on OPEC.........who is basically maintaining production numbers.....and are unwilling to cut production and likely lose market shares..................AGAIN

They disingenuously suggest OPEC started a "price war" with the US and other producers......... while IGNORING the FACT that US oil production has increased tremendously in recent years, and WE.......US PRODUCERS......... have flooded a slowing market.

Im seeing year long low fuel prices this year(and perhaps longer) as it all shakes out.......no one is going to give in and cut production voluntarily.........I see NO benefit  to do so.

Meanwhile, in late 2012 the Obama administration set Fuel Efficiency Standards that require US automakers to nearly double the average fuel economy of new cars and trucks by 2025. Current rules mandated an average of about 29 miles per gallon in 2012, with gradual increases to 35.5 m.p.g. by 2016 and eventually to 54.5 miles per gallon for 2025.

It will be interesting to see if "oil money" will be able to BUY themselves  a new set of 'rules" in the near future in efforts to help drive up US based oil demand

Mugwump

Here's another similar shot at why OPEC is holding prices....

"Between June and November 2014, oil prices have fallen by some 40 percent, courtesy of robust growth in output and a bleaker outlook for oil demand. In late November, The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) chose to keep its production quotas intact, triggering several obituaries and talks of a price war between OPEC and the United States, where most of the additional supply originates. Yet war is not quite the right term; insurgency is more like it?decentralized, adaptive and, likely, inconclusive. In some ways, OPEC reverts back to its historical role as an important actor on the margins; but in other ways, OPEC confronts a new system where the lag between high prices and high production has shrunk and where the need for spare capacity diminishes."

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/shale-oil-surprise-opec-faces-insurgency-not-price-war-11818
Jon

?Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming ?Wow! What a Ride!? ~ Hunter S. Thompson

EdKaz

QuoteHere's another similar shot at why OPEC is holding price

In a very GENERIC sense........

OPEC isnt holding "prices".............they simply are NOT willing to throttle back THEIR SUPPLY.

The US and our recent increased supply (driven by a handful of greed driven investors) is AGAIN causing  "unrest"........the writing was all over the walls for THIS to happen.....AS IT HAPPENED.

US suppliers COULD just as easily(As OPEC) cut back OUR additional supply to drive Global PRICES back up............ A Scenario UNLIKELY to happen.

The whole situation is a bit entertaining and educational.

WE  Explore for and pump oil here at or near record levels in recent years........ flooding the GLOBAL market with excess oil........and there exists some "confusion" as to who should or minimally who CAUSED, the global price dive?????


Maybe  US oil investors should start looking at beef and milk production in them fields they have been scarfing up to hold em over during these "oil price wars"....... global demand has actually INCREASED while US production has fallen behind.........and consumer prices sent soaring. ;) :)


Mugwump

Quote from: EdKaz on January 05, 2015, 08:44:11 AM
QuoteHere's another similar shot at why OPEC is holding price

In a very GENERIC sense........

OPEC isnt holding "prices".............they simply are NOT willing to throttle back THEIR SUPPLY.

The US and our recent increased supply (driven by a handful of greed driven investors) is AGAIN causing  "unrest"........the writing was all over the walls for THIS to happen.....AS IT HAPPENED.

US suppliers COULD just as easily(As OPEC) cut back OUR additional supply to drive Global PRICES back up............ A Scenario UNLIKELY to happen.

The whole situation is a bit entertaining and educational.

WE  Explore for and pump oil here at or near record levels in recent years........ flooding the GLOBAL market with excess oil........and there exists some "confusion" as to who should or minimally who CAUSED, the global price dive?????


Maybe  US oil investors should start looking at beef and milk production in them fields they have been scarfing up to hold em over during these "oil price wars"....... global demand has actually INCREASED while US production has fallen behind.........and consumer prices sent soaring. ;) :)

I'm glad that you used beef and milk as the example....those crops needed for both industries are being diverted to benefit the ethanol gas additive, limiting what's needed to support both the dairy and cattle populations thus decreasing the herds on hand......supply and demand occurs raising prices ....however, a new glut of fresh cheaper oil hitting the scene should decrease the amount of ethanol purchases needed saving them money....buy even with the reduced fuel costs (delivery charges) consumer prices are static....they're "milking" us both ways..huh;D
Jon

?Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming ?Wow! What a Ride!? ~ Hunter S. Thompson

EdKaz

QuoteI'm glad that you used beef and milk as the example....those crops needed for both industries are being diverted to benefit the ethanol gas additive, limiting what's needed to support both the dairy and cattle populations thus decreasing the herds on hand

Are they REALLY  though.............or has WEATHER actually been playing a much larger part in cattle/dairy production numbers?
FWIW most cattle graze in fields until they hit 7-800 pounds and than are moved and  simply finished off to 1200 pounds +/-  in feed lots.

Ethanol producers and cattle farmers/ feed ACTUALLY go hand in hand to HELP each other..........if it wasnt for the making of feed from/of the waste products of ethanol, ethanol producers would have to pay landfills to haul away and bury their waste..........instead they sell it for animal food.....cheap

They RETURN 1/3 of ever bushel of corn THEY use.......... as byproducts used in/for animal feed (cows chicken pigs fish etc).......... to date, returning more than enough to supply every feedlot in this country.



Have a gander at this article when ya get bored

http://www.americancattlemen.com/articles/ethanol-impact-feed-prices


Quotehowever, a new glut of fresh cheaper oil hitting the scene should decrease the amount of ethanol purchases needed saving them money

............Or provide US oil money mongers yet ANOTHER place to point their crooked fingers, while hurling baseless accusations and fantasy figures, in hopes of support in shutting down "competition"?

Cutting ethanol production now could have a reversed impact on feed and ultimately end cattle prices, (as in Going to RISE) especially in areas where corn is being shipped in, and the Ethanol produced  byproducts  are being heavily depended on  by beef producers.

Quotewith the reduced fuel costs (delivery charges) consumer prices are static....they're "milking" us both ways..huh?

ABSOLUTELY!!!!!!
Notice the huge price drop in airline tickets.................or the shipping Industry recently??????

Yeah.............ME NEITHER >:(



Mugwump

"" Ethanol producers and cattle farmers/ feed ACTUALLY go hand in hand to HELP each other..........if it wasnt for the making of feed from/of the waste products of ethanol, ethanol producers would have to pay landfills to haul away and bury their waste..........instead they sell it for animal food.....cheap""

So the farmers are selling the corn, then paying to get the waste product back.....LOL the farmer, nor the cattle are winners here........Ethanol producers set the bushel price with demand, then make money in return on the waste... ;D....sure they dodge the 'waste dump' costs....and make money with the end product too....clever?....LOL.....so where does Del Monte and such come in...??  can't sell em the people poop back....LOL.........jk
Jon

?Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming ?Wow! What a Ride!? ~ Hunter S. Thompson

LizStreithorst

I heard on NPR this morning that some dairy farmers are moving all their manure to a pit where it decays anerobiclly and makes methane that they make electricity from and sell to the power company.  I suppose that's better than nothing.

The way they raise dairy cows these days is a disgrace.  Time was a man could make a good living and send his kid to college milking 40 cows.  His cows grazed the land and put their manure there.  The manure was a benfit not a problem.  Cows had names.  It's not like that now and we, the animals, and the environment are the worse for it.

(Dang, I went on a rant!) 
Always move forward. Never look back.

Mugwump

Have a gander at this article when ya get bored

http://www.americancattlemen.com/articles/ethanol-impact-feed-prices


I just noticed that this written by a writer for the 'Renewable Fuel Assoc too'...
Jon

?Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming ?Wow! What a Ride!? ~ Hunter S. Thompson

BallAquatics

Quote from: LizStreithorst on January 05, 2015, 01:55:10 PM
Time was a man could make a good living and send his kid to college milking 40 cows.

We still have those folks around here Liz.  They are called farmers in these parts.  Them other fellas you refer to, well we call them "Agra-Businessmen".

Dennis

LizStreithorst

Oh Dennis, are there actually real farmers in your neck of the woods?  Jones county, where I live, used to be the dairy county.  Take the scenic route through the county and you'll see lots of old milking barns.  I'll have to take pics of one that I'm fond of. 

We have chicken houses here.  The chickens are raised in terrible conditions.  Their poo is spread on the ground to fertilize the ground that the steers graze on.  The steers then get sent to the feed lots where their poo will be shoveled into a pit and made into electricity.  The whole senerio seems screwy to me.
Always move forward. Never look back.

Mugwump

There's still a few places around here where we can get fresh eggs....go up on the porch, make change from the cigar box that you pay for them in....
Jon

?Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming ?Wow! What a Ride!? ~ Hunter S. Thompson

LizStreithorst

A pic from my past.  The dairy goat became a champion in 3 straight shows.  She came from my doe line.  I never showed the chickens but they are good quality.  They are Light Bramahs and came from McMurrey hatcheries.  They laid beautiful brown eggs.
Always move forward. Never look back.

EdKaz

Quoteso where does Del Monte and such come in...??.........can't sell em the people poop back....LOL

  Dont look now, but Del Monte returns 100 million Metric tons  of organic WASTE to farmers per year for ANIMAL FOOD in North America......Seems they are doing the SAME thing Ethanol producers are......take what they can use and sell it..........than return whats left to farmers as animal feed............. Them Dirty BASTARDS ;) LOL


Quote"Ethanol producers set the bushel price with demand, then make money in return on the waste... ;D....sure they dodge the 'waste dump' costs....and make money with the end product too....clever?"

Almost as "clever" as the farmers who hold back production of dairy products and beef cattle DISINGENUOUSLY claiming the ethanol industry is eating up all the corn, while collecting Govt subsidies and playing a game of production limits aka "supply management" put in play with/BY a government full of crooks being bought and sold.... and gone to shit.


  With RECORD harvests in cribs this year and plummeting fuel prices and demand, You reckon we will see a huge increase in dairy and beef production combined with drastic price cuts in the stores......... due to LARGE increases in feed corn supplies, and corns "decreased worth"?

Or......... will we send even MORE corn out of the country to artificially create a corn shortage here, and "excuse away" stagnant HIGH priced beef and dairy products?

"Supply and demand" works in FREE MARKETS........we havent seen but a shadow of THAT in a decade or more here in the states.



QuoteTime was a man could make a good living and send his kid to college milking 40 cows.

.............and than the GREEDY and DISHONEST  took over to show everyone how it SHOULD be done.










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Mugwump

Jon

?Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming ?Wow! What a Ride!? ~ Hunter S. Thompson